Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 1.469887e-01 0.178858 0.213345 0.253145 0.297522 0.345209 0.400054
2025-03-16 9.723434e-02 0.137456 0.184973 0.244015 0.314219 0.393921 0.490146
2025-03-23 7.279512e-02 0.118750 0.177548 0.255283 0.352504 0.467485 0.611172
2025-03-30 5.087879e-02 0.097584 0.162681 0.254233 0.374305 0.521620 0.711283
2025-04-06 3.576170e-02 0.081548 0.151127 0.254815 0.396658 0.576205 0.813121
2025-04-13 2.620596e-02 0.071108 0.145168 0.261320 0.425945 0.639685 0.927256
2025-04-20 1.958247e-02 0.063442 0.141704 0.270220 0.458023 0.707090 1.047580
2025-04-27 1.436553e-02 0.056453 0.137840 0.277525 0.487497 0.771348 1.164902
2025-05-04 9.463013e-03 0.047717 0.129167 0.276047 0.503655 0.817594 1.259247
2025-05-11 6.555711e-03 0.042281 0.125277 0.281355 0.529301 0.876817 1.371322
2025-05-18 3.932996e-03 0.035539 0.117344 0.278829 0.542576 0.918764 1.460687
2025-05-25 1.728172e-03 0.027160 0.103776 0.264791 0.536934 0.933359 1.512801
2025-06-01 9.053349e-04 0.023583 0.100215 0.268448 0.559378 0.989044 1.622980
2025-06-08 2.755056e-04 0.018566 0.091602 0.261626 0.564498 1.019660 1.699113
2025-06-15 1.374229e-04 0.017597 0.093457 0.275028 0.602899 1.099520 1.844741
2025-06-22 1.940407e-05 0.014660 0.088776 0.274867 0.618640 1.146146 1.944500
2025-06-29 3.517336e-08 0.012317 0.085012 0.276031 0.636385 1.195862 2.049098
2025-07-06 NaN 0.011009 0.084194 0.283212 0.664468 1.261437 2.176848
2025-07-13 NaN 0.010109 0.084522 0.292786 0.696821 1.333828 2.314962
2025-07-20 NaN 0.009112 0.084109 0.300599 0.726208 1.402062 2.447807
2025-07-27 NaN 0.007371 0.079809 0.299109 0.738925 1.444811 2.544404
2025-08-03 NaN 0.006455 0.078663 0.304743 0.764413 1.507507 2.670324
2025-08-10 NaN 0.005059 0.074269 0.302104 0.774653 1.546516 2.762177